Austin 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.32
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.75
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
17%
4.56
X/2
10%
7.31
X/X
11%
4.59
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
17%
5.36
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.8pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.8pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+7.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -16%
1.77/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.67
+21% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
355 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 80%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
23.4 Crosses 16.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austin
0W-4D-2L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.82 xG 1.76
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 10
288 Passes 329
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
30.04.2023 Austin Austin 2-2 HT 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
07.08.2022 Austin Austin 3-3 HT 3-2 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
03.04.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 HT 0-1 Austin Austin ABD
21.10.2021 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 4-0 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
19.09.2021 Austin Austin 3-4 HT 3-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austin
4-3
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.88 xG 2.71
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
10 Corners 3
383 Passes 231
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
36 Box Touches 25
35 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austin nicked a narrow win over San Jose Earthquakes 4-3. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Austin as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Austin had 61% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 39%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.88 to 2.71 — the balance of chances actually favoured San Jose Earthquakes.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Jose Earthquakes led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Austin and 2.67 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Austin 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Austin 42%, draw 23%, San Jose Earthquakes 34%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Austin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Austin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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