Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Austin v San Jose Earthquakes — Team-Based Signals
Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Austin
ABD
2-2
HT 1-1
San Jose Earthquakes
ABD
3-3
HT 3-2
San Jose Earthquakes
ABD
2-2
HT 0-1
Austin
ABD
4-0
HT 0-0
Austin
ABD
3-4
HT 3-1
San Jose Earthquakes
ABD
Austin 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes — Actual Match Statistics
Austin nicked a narrow win over San Jose Earthquakes 4-3. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Austin as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Austin had 61% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 39%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.88 to 2.71 — the balance of chances actually favoured San Jose Earthquakes.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Jose Earthquakes led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Austin and 2.67 for San Jose Earthquakes.
What was the final score of Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Austin 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Before kick-off our model rated a Austin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Austin 42%, draw 23%, San Jose Earthquakes 34%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Austin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.