San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Austin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
9.82
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 28% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.32
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.1
X/1
13%
4.24
X/2
7%
8.49
X/X
11%
5.52
2/1
12%
21.85
2/2
13%
6.07
2/X
9%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Austin EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -12%
1.68/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.62
-7% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
386 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 80%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
20.9 Crosses 19.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Austin
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.89 xG 1.71
52% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 6
320 Passes 304
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Austin Austin 4-3 HT 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
22.10.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
30.04.2023 Austin Austin 2-2 HT 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
07.08.2022 Austin Austin 3-3 HT 3-2 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
03.04.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 HT 0-1 Austin Austin ABD
21.10.2021 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 4-0 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
1-1
AWAY Austin
3.39 xG 0.64
48% Ball Possession 52%
22 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 1
364 Passes 396
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
34 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Jose Earthquakes and Austin couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was San Jose Earthquakes at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, San Jose Earthquakes had 48% of the ball to Austin's 52%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 3.39 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 2.00 for Austin.

What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin?

San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Austin in the USA - Major League on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 47%, draw 26%, Austin 28%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) ✗ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
26 May 2024
02:30 DC United vs Chicago Fire Analysis →
02:30 Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati Analysis →
02:30 Charlotte vs Philadelphia Union Analysis →
02:30 Orlando City vs Columbus Crew Analysis →
02:30 Atlanta United vs Los Angeles FC Analysis →
02:30 CF Montreal vs Nashville SC Analysis →