Toronto FC 3-4 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
32%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
19%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+5.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
31%
Away Win
39%
-7.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.1pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 43%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.27/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.14
-17% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
379 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 82%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
15.3 Crosses 16.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.38 xG 2.02
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
382 Passes 352
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
01.10.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-3 HT 2-2 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
22.06.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
05.05.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
30.04.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
30.09.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-2 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
3-4
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.36 xG 1.49
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
385 Passes 416
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati nicked a narrow win over Toronto FC 4-3 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 31%) promised a tight game; FC Cincinnati found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Toronto FC had 49% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 51%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.36 to 1.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Toronto FC and 2.00 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Toronto FC 3-4 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 40%, draw 28%, FC Cincinnati 31%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toronto FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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