Groningen 4-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.79
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 26% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.65
X/1
21%
3.98
X/2
13%
10.3
X/X
9%
5.36
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
9%
7.81
2/X
9%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-9.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
29%
Away Win
19%
+9.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.37/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.55
-12% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
368 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 75%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
21.6 Crosses 16.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
1W-3D-2L
AWAY NAC Breda
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.34 xG 1.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
330 Passes 320
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
06.10.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-2 HT 2-1 Groningen Groningen HOL2
23.02.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-0 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
02.12.2018 Groningen Groningen 5-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
23.02.2018 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
16.09.2017 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
4-1
AWAY NAC Breda
2.23 xG 1.21
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
565 Passes 208
87% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 8
25 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Groningen vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen swept aside NAC Breda 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Groningen as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Groningen had 69% of the ball to NAC Breda's 31%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 2.23 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Groningen and 1.50 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Groningen vs NAC Breda?

Groningen 4-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Groningen 48%, draw 24%, NAC Breda 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Groningen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Groningen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →