İspanya (K) 0-1 Almanya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Olympics, 9 Aug 2024

İspanya (K)
0-1 HT 0-0
Almanya (K)
📅09/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Olympics – 2024

İspanya (K) vs Almanya (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.86
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
19%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
30%
3.14
6+ Goals
8%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.44
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1 EV+ ✗
28%
4.38
X/2
10%
8.19
X/X
9%
5.21
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
6%
5.83
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · X/1 at 4.38 — our 28% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
50%
+9.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.4pp
19%
Away Win
25%
-6.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İspanya (K) v Almanya (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İspanya (K) EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Almanya (K) EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
– Crosses 14.5
– Yellow Cards 1.5

İspanya (K) vs Almanya (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İspanya (K)
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Almanya (K)
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 1.19
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
421 Passes 223
79% Pass Accuracy 66%
27 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.07.2022 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) 2-0 HT 2-0 İspanya (K) İspanya (K) ABK
12.06.2019 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 İspanya (K) İspanya (K) KDK
13.11.2018 Almanya (K) Almanya (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 İspanya (K) İspanya (K) HAZ

İspanya (K) 0-1 Almanya (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İspanya (K)
0-1
AWAY Almanya (K)
1.84 xG 1.79
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
582 Passes 213
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH İspanya (K) vs Almanya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almanya (K) nicked a narrow win over İspanya (K) 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had İspanya (K) at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, İspanya (K) had 68% of the ball to Almanya (K)'s 32%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.84 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Almanya (K) led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for İspanya (K) and 1.00 for Almanya (K).

What was the final score of İspanya (K) vs Almanya (K)?

İspanya (K) 0-1 Almanya (K) in the Olympics on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İspanya (K) vs Almanya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a İspanya (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split İspanya (K) 59%, draw 22%, Almanya (K) 19%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (İspanya (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (İspanya (K)) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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