Fransa U23 3-5 İspanya U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Olympics, 9 Aug 2024

Fransa U23
3-5 HT 1-3
İspanya U23
📅09/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Olympics – 2024

Fransa U23 vs İspanya U23 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.25
Draw
19%
3.11
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.67
Over 2.5
52%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.68
2-3 Goals
47%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.36
6+ Goals
7%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.33
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
3%
13.4
X/1
11%
4.83
X/2
4%
6.15
X/X
8%
4.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
30.0
2/2
25%
4.68
2/X
8%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 15% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
41%
+4.8pp
19%
Draw
29%
-9.8pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fransa U23 v İspanya U23 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fransa U23 EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY İspanya U23 EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +100% / +100%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
332 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 69%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
– Crosses 29.0
– Yellow Cards 3.0

Fransa U23 3-5 İspanya U23 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fransa U23
3-5
AWAY İspanya U23
3.30 xG 2.43
50% Ball Possession 50%
30 Total Shots 19
11 Shots on Target 8
12 Corners 2
491 Passes 514
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
63 Box Touches 16
49 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Fransa U23 vs İspanya U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İspanya U23 beat Fransa U23 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Fransa U23 at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fransa U23 had 50% of the ball to İspanya U23's 50%, shots finished 30-19, expected goals 3.30 to 2.43 — on chances, Fransa U23 could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Fransa U23 vs İspanya U23?

Fransa U23 3-5 İspanya U23 in the Olympics on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fransa U23 vs İspanya U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fransa U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fransa U23 46%, draw 19%, İspanya U23 36%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Fransa U23) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fransa U23) ✓ Over 2.5
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