Galatasaray 2-1 Hatayspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 9 Aug 2024

📅09/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.27
Draw
24%
5.28
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.61
Over
50%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
26%
5.92
2-3
37%
2.06
4-5
25%
2.58
6+
12%
5.86
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.92 — our 26% vs market 12.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.4
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
25.5
X/1
15%
3.48
X/2
5%
23.6
X/X
11%
9.52
2/1
8%
21.45
2/2
6%
17.15
2/X
5%
24.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Galatasaray win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
60%
Home Win
74%
-14.5pp
24%
Draw
16%
+7.7pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
35%
+15.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
65%
-15.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galatasaray The Market 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Hatayspor The Market 12%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -10%
2.42/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/2.43
+12% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
430 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 74%
34.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
24.0 Crosses 12.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galatasaray
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Hatayspor
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.93 xG 1.37
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
415 Passes 207
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 18
27 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.04.2024 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-0 HT 1-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
11.11.2023 Hatayspor Hatayspor 2-1 HT 1-1 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
13.01.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 4-0 HT 3-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
16.01.2022 Hatayspor Hatayspor 4-2 HT 1-2 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
23.08.2021 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 1-1 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
03.04.2021 Hatayspor Hatayspor 3-0 HT 2-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galatasaray
2-1
AWAY Hatayspor
3.58 xG 0.57
71% Ball Possession 29%
26 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 2
405 Passes 130
85% Pass Accuracy 64%
43 Box Touches 10
39 Crosses 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Galatasaray vs Hatayspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray nicked a narrow win over Hatayspor 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Galatasaray as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Galatasaray had 71% of the ball to Hatayspor's 29%, shots finished 26-10, expected goals 3.58 to 0.57 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Galatasaray's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Galatasaray and 1.67 for Hatayspor.

What was the final score of Galatasaray vs Hatayspor?

Galatasaray 2-1 Hatayspor in the Turkey - Super League on 09/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galatasaray vs Hatayspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Galatasaray 60%, draw 24%, Hatayspor 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galatasaray) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✗ BTTS No
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