Luzern 1-2 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 9 Aug 2025

Luzern
1-2 HT 1-1
Thun
📅09/08/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Luzern vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.5
No
39%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.56
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
24%
2.94
6+ Goals
14%
8.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.98
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
11.85
X/1
18%
5.42
X/2
7%
7.02
X/X
10%
5.25
2/1
6%
23.05
2/2
18%
4.46
2/X
7%
12.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+2.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.7pp
61%
BTTS Yes
62%
-1.4pp
39%
BTTS No
38%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Luzern v Thun — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -17%
1.76/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.52
+3% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
18.2 Crosses 17.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Luzern vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Thun
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.89 xG 1.22
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
274 Passes 457
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Thun Thun 1-3 HT 1-0 Luzern Luzern İSVK
31.01.2023 Thun Thun 2-2 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSVK
13.09.2020 Thun Thun 0-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSVK
05.07.2020 Luzern Luzern 3-0 HT 2-0 Thun Thun İSV
22.02.2020 Thun Thun 1-1 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
05.10.2019 Thun Thun 0-2 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV

Luzern 1-2 Thun — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-2
AWAY Thun
1.36 xG 2.59
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
296 Passes 223
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Box Touches 40
27 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun nicked a narrow win over Luzern 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Luzern at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Luzern had 56% of the ball to Thun's 44%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 1.36 to 2.59 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Thun's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Luzern and 0.67 for Thun.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Thun?

Luzern 1-2 Thun in the Switzerland - Super League on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Luzern 45%, draw 23%, Thun 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luzern) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İSV More Switzerland - Super League
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