St. Gallen 5-0 Winterthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.29
Over 2.5
59%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.55
No
38%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.77
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.88
6+ Goals
15%
7.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.28
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
13%
4.66
X/2
7%
9.0
X/X
11%
5.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.6
2/2
10%
6.31
2/X
10%
13.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
40%
+1.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
60%
-1.4pp
62%
BTTS Yes
60%
+1.3pp
38%
BTTS No
40%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Winterthur EU Bookmakers 27%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -8%
1.79/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.71
-7% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
18.8 Crosses 13.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Gallen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Winterthur
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.85 xG 1.74
57% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
423 Passes 296
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2025 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-4 HT 1-2 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
01.03.2025 Winterthur Winterthur 4-0 HT 3-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
30.10.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-2 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
20.07.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
20.05.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-3 HT 0-2 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
17.02.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-2 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Gallen
5-0
AWAY Winterthur
2.51 xG 0.92
36% Ball Possession 64%
18 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
161 Passes 323
63% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 37
9 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH St. Gallen vs Winterthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Gallen cruised past Winterthur 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had St. Gallen as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while both teams to score (62%) missed.

On the day, St. Gallen had 36% of the ball to Winterthur's 64%, shots finished 18-19, expected goals 2.51 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Winterthur led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for St. Gallen and 2.33 for Winterthur.

What was the final score of St. Gallen vs Winterthur?

St. Gallen 5-0 Winterthur in the Switzerland - Super League on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Gallen vs Winterthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Gallen win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split St. Gallen 50%, draw 26%, Winterthur 24%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Gallen), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Gallen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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