St. Gallen 2-2 Winterthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.61
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.86
2-3 Goals
38%
2.05
4-5 Goals
30%
2.59
6+ Goals
12%
5.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.72
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.9
X/1
21%
3.81
X/2
6%
13.1
X/X
9%
7.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
18.9
2/2
7%
8.92
2/X
8%
17.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.9 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
64%
-5.2pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.4pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.8pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.9pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Winterthur EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -17%
2.05/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.83
+3% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
18.6 Crosses 10.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Gallen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Winterthur
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.01 xG 1.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
341 Passes 278
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
20.07.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
20.05.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-3 HT 0-2 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
17.02.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-2 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
11.11.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 4-2 HT 3-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
22.10.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 2-1 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
16.04.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-3 HT 2-3 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Gallen
2-2
AWAY Winterthur
1.72 xG 2.07
69% Ball Possession 31%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
600 Passes 220
89% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH St. Gallen vs Winterthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Gallen and Winterthur shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had St. Gallen at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, St. Gallen had 69% of the ball to Winterthur's 31%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.72 to 2.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Winterthur led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for St. Gallen and 1.83 for Winterthur.

What was the final score of St. Gallen vs Winterthur?

St. Gallen 2-2 Winterthur in the Switzerland - Super League on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Gallen vs Winterthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Gallen win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split St. Gallen 59%, draw 22%, Winterthur 18%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Gallen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Gallen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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