Winterthur 4-0 St. Gallen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.87
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
45%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.43
Over 2.5
55%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.19
2-3 Goals
38%
2.0
4-5 Goals
25%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
6.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✓
18%
7.11
1/2
6%
19.6
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
10%
10.1
X/2
14%
4.49
X/X
6%
6.26
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.06
2/X
7%
13.5
Value flag · 1/1 at 7.11 — our 18% vs market 10.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
22%
+10.6pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.2pp
45%
Away Win
55%
-9.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.9pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 59%
+6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -21%
1.05/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.41
-4% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -1%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
252 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 84%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
14.7 Crosses 18.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
2W-2D-2L
AWAY St. Gallen
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.40 xG 1.82
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
297 Passes 368
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.10.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-2 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
20.07.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
20.05.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-3 HT 0-2 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
17.02.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-2 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
11.11.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 4-2 HT 3-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
22.10.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 2-1 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
4-0
AWAY St. Gallen
2.00 xG 1.76
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
316 Passes 443
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 28
7 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs St. Gallen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Winterthur ran out comfortable winners over St. Gallen 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match lean was St. Gallen at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Winterthur had 43% of the ball to St. Gallen's 57%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 2.00 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Winterthur and 2.00 for St. Gallen.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs St. Gallen?

Winterthur 4-0 St. Gallen in the Switzerland - Super League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs St. Gallen?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Gallen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 33%, draw 22%, St. Gallen 45%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (St. Gallen), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Gallen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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