Aarhus Fremad 3-1 Hillerod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
44%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.29
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.26
6+ Goals
9%
12.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.13
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
11%
6.04
X/2
14%
5.26
X/X
10%
4.92
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
20%
3.35
2/X
7%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-3.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.7pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarhus Fremad EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Hillerod EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
Crosses 20.3
Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarhus Fremad
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Hillerod
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.03.2022 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 3-1 HT 1-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN2
04.09.2021 Hillerod Hillerod 1-0 HT 1-0 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarhus Fremad
3-1
AWAY Hillerod
1.45 xG 0.99
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
328 Passes 380
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarhus Fremad saw off Hillerod 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hillerod at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Aarhus Fremad had 47% of the ball to Hillerod's 53%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.45 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aarhus Fremad and 1.00 for Hillerod.

What was the final score of Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerod?

Aarhus Fremad 3-1 Hillerod in the Denmark 1st Division on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerod?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Aarhus Fremad 32%, draw 24%, Hillerod 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hillerod), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hillerod) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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