Guadeloupe 1-0 Surinam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 9 Sep 2024

📅09/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
34%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.61
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
18%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 31% vs market 22.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
34%
Away Win
41%
-6.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadeloupe EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Surinam EU Bookmakers 45%
+48% / +48% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -55% / -55%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
+34% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +41%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
Crosses 31.0
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadeloupe
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Surinam
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.84 xG 1.84
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 8
252 Passes 419
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 38
9 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.07.2021 Surinam Surinam 2-1 HT 1-1 Guadeloupe Guadeloupe GK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadeloupe
1-0
AWAY Surinam
0.83 xG 0.31
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 0
343 Passes 289
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 7
16 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guadeloupe vs Surinam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadeloupe nicked a narrow win over Surinam 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Guadeloupe made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Guadeloupe had 54% of the ball to Surinam's 46%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.83 to 0.31.

What was the final score of Guadeloupe vs Surinam?

Guadeloupe 1-0 Surinam in the CONCACAF Champions League on 09/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadeloupe vs Surinam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadeloupe win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Guadeloupe 37%, draw 28%, Surinam 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadeloupe), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadeloupe) ✓ Under 2.5
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