Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 Venados — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 9 Sep 2024

📅09/09/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.75
Draw
37%
3.54
Away
36%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
23%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
23%
+4.4pp
37%
Draw
25%
+12.2pp
36%
Away Win
52%
-16.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Venados EU Bookmakers 56%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +33% / +33%
0.79/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/2.00
-31% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +97% / -49%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
259 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Venados
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
13.03.2024 Venados Venados 2-1 HT 1-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
06.09.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1 HT 2-1 Venados Venados MEK2
19.01.2023 Venados Venados 2-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
08.07.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-0 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
10.02.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
06.10.2021 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alebrijes de Oaxaca nicked a narrow win over Venados 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (27% / 37% / 36%) promised a tight game; Alebrijes de Oaxaca found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.00 for Venados.

What was the final score of Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados?

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 Venados in the Mexico - Primera A on 09/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Alebrijes de Oaxaca 27%, draw 37%, Venados 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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