Venados 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 13 Mar 2024

📅13/03/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.15
Over 2.5
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-3.5pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.2pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+10.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-10.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.6pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venados EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
2.20/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.55
+23% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
475 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venados
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
06.09.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1 HT 2-1 Venados Venados MEK2
19.01.2023 Venados Venados 2-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
08.07.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-0 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
10.02.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
06.10.2021 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
06.02.2021 Venados Venados 2-2 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH Venados vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venados squeezed past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Venados as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alebrijes de Oaxaca led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Venados and 1.17 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of Venados vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Venados 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venados vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venados win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Venados 56%, draw 24%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Venados) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Venados) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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