Bayern München (K) 5-2 Arsenal (K) — Result, Stats & Model Review (Champions League - Women's, 9 Oct 2024)

Bayern München (K)

5-2 HT 1-1

Arsenal (K)

📅09/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗

Champions League - Women's – 2024/2025

Bayern München (K) vs Arsenal (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

37%

2.18

Draw

28%

3.45

Away

35%

2.79

Under/Over 2.5

Under

52%

2.03

Over

48%

1.71

Both Teams to Score

Yes Pick

57%

1.61

43%

2.16

Total Goals

0-1

21%

2-3

50%

4-5

20%

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

27%

1/2

1/X

11%

X/1

X/2

17%

X/X

11%

2/1

2/2

10%

2/X

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

◎

Our Pick

BTTS Yes — 57% ✓

Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.

STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

37%

Home Win

42%

-5.5pp

28%

Draw

26%

+2.7pp

35%

Away Win

32%

+2.8pp

52%

Under 2.5

45%

+6.9pp

48%

Over 2.5

55%

-6.9pp

57%

BTTS Yes

58%

-1.0pp

43%

BTTS No

42%

+1.0pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayern München (K) v Arsenal (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Bayern München (K) EU Bookmakers 46%

Head to Head

AWAY Arsenal (K) EU Bookmakers 36%

-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%

–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–

+40% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –

54% Ball Possession 46%

12 Total Shots 13

4 Shots on Target 5

5 Corners 6

432 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 75%

25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –

22.2 Crosses –

2.3 Yellow Cards –

Bayern München (K) vs Arsenal (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Bayern München (K)

2W-0D-1L

AWAY Arsenal (K)

0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67

0.73 xG 2.42

54% Ball Possession 46%

10 Total Shots 16

2 Shots on Target 5

4 Corners 4

395 Passes 334

82% Pass Accuracy 81%

14 Box Touches 38

14 Crosses 18

2 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

29.03.2023 Arsenal (K)

2-0 HT 2-0

Bayern München (K) ŞMP-K

21.03.2023 Bayern München (K)

1-0 HT 1-0

Arsenal (K) ŞMP-K

28.07.2019 Arsenal (K)

0-1 HT 0-1

Bayern München (K) HAZ

Bayern München (K) 5-2 Arsenal (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Bayern München (K)

5-2

AWAY Arsenal (K)

1.89 xG 1.57

47% Ball Possession 53%

13 Total Shots 9

10 Shots on Target 6

5 Corners 3

393 Passes 454

84% Pass Accuracy 87%

23 Box Touches 19

15 Crosses 14

0 Yellow Cards 1

POST-MATCH Bayern München (K) vs Arsenal (K)

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern München (K) swept aside Arsenal (K) 5-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Bayern München (K) found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bayern München (K) had 47% of the ball to Arsenal (K)'s 53%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.89 to 1.57.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Bayern München (K) had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bayern München (K) and 0.67 for Arsenal (K).

What was the final score of Bayern München (K) vs Arsenal (K)?

Bayern München (K) 5-2 Arsenal (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 09/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern München (K) vs Arsenal (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern München (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Bayern München (K) 37%, draw 28%, Arsenal (K) 35%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern München (K)), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayern München (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes

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