Roda 1-0 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 9 Nov 2024

Roda
1-0 HT 1-0
Telstar
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 28% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.8
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
9%
12.45
X/1
18%
4.84
X/2
11%
7.23
X/X
13%
4.84
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
15%
4.95
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.4pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.56/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.27
+3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 78%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
17.7 Crosses 17.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Telstar
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.47 xG 1.29
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
396 Passes 236
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2024 Telstar Telstar 1-1 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
15.09.2023 Roda Roda 3-0 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
10.03.2023 Roda Roda 1-2 HT 0-1 Telstar Telstar HOL2
14.10.2022 Telstar Telstar 2-1 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
06.05.2022 Roda Roda 4-3 HT 1-2 Telstar Telstar HOL2
20.08.2021 Telstar Telstar 3-4 HT 3-1 Roda Roda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
1-0
AWAY Telstar
1.33 xG 0.73
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 8
10 Corners 5
308 Passes 346
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Roda vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda nicked a narrow win over Telstar 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Roda found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Roda had 48% of the ball to Telstar's 52%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 1.33 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Roda and 1.83 for Telstar.

What was the final score of Roda vs Telstar?

Roda 1-0 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Roda 40%, draw 29%, Telstar 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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