09/11/2024
·
18:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
ES Tunis vs Gabes Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87
— our 29% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
76%
22%
Draw
16%
13%
Away Win
7%
53%
Under 2.5
45%
47%
Over 2.5
55%
38%
BTTS Yes
37%
62%
BTTS No
63%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
ES Tunis v Gabes — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
ES Tunis
EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY
Gabes
EU Bookmakers 9%
-1% /
-5%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-20% /
-20%
1.65/0.45
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.00/2.00
+9%
/
+1%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+123%
/
-27%
64%
Ball Possession
36%
16
Total Shots
6
7
Shots on Target
2
6
Corners
2
497 · 88%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
218 · 72%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
1.5
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
ES Tunis vs Gabes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
ES Tunis edged past Gabes 2-1.
Just as the model leaned, our model had ES Tunis as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of ES Tunis vs Gabes?
ES Tunis 2-1 Gabes in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for ES Tunis vs Gabes?
Before kick-off our model rated a ES Tunis win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split ES Tunis 66%, draw 22%, Gabes 13%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ES Tunis) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (ES Tunis)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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TUN1
More Tunisia - 1st Division
9 Nov 2024