Karabağ 2-0 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 9 Nov 2025

📅09/11/2025 · 🕒17:44 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
18%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.0
Over 2.5
42%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
57%
-0.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
18%
Away Win
20%
-1.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
46%
+11.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
54%
-11.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.2pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.89/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.41
+13% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
453 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
19.04.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 3-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
16.02.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
01.12.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-3 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.09.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-0 HT 3-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
24.04.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-1 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
02.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-4 HT 0-3 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ got the better of Neftçi PFK 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Karabağ and 0.17 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK?

Karabağ 2-0 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 57%, draw 25%, Neftçi PFK 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
9 Nov 2025
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