Northampton Town 2-1 Peterborough United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 9 Dec 2024

Northampton Town
2-1 HT 1-1
Peterborough United
📅09/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Northampton Town vs Peterborough United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.44
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
2.72
6+ Goals
10%
7.44
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.44 — our 28% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.5
1/2
9%
23.0
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
11%
7.1
X/2
15%
5.16
X/X
9%
5.41
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
17%
2.87
2/X
9%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+3.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-2.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.5pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Northampton Town v Peterborough United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 48%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.16/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.91
+4% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
316 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 76%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
18.1 Crosses 19.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5

Northampton Town vs Peterborough United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northampton Town
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Peterborough United
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.97 xG 1.75
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
269 Passes 380
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.03.2024 Peterborough United Peterborough United 5-1 HT 3-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
19.08.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
16.04.2021 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-1 HT 1-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
10.10.2020 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
03.09.2019 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-2 HT 0-2 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNTK
02.04.2018 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-0 HT 2-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1

Northampton Town 2-1 Peterborough United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northampton Town
2-1
AWAY Peterborough United
0.60 xG 1.94
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
211 Passes 423
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Northampton Town vs Peterborough United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northampton Town nicked a narrow win over Peterborough United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Peterborough United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Northampton Town had 36% of the ball to Peterborough United's 64%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.60 to 1.94 — the balance of chances actually favoured Peterborough United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Northampton Town and 2.33 for Peterborough United.

What was the final score of Northampton Town vs Peterborough United?

Northampton Town 2-1 Peterborough United in the England - 1st Division on 09/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northampton Town vs Peterborough United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Northampton Town 34%, draw 25%, Peterborough United 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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