Peterborough United 5-1 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Mar 2024

Peterborough United
5-1 HT 3-1
Northampton Town
📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Peterborough United vs Northampton Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.43
Over 2.5
63%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.25
2-3 Goals
34%
1.98
4-5 Goals
31%
2.7
6+ Goals
16%
6.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
18.4
X/1
17%
3.67
X/2
7%
14.5
X/X
7%
7.16
2/1
8%
20.6
2/2
7%
10.7
2/X
7%
18.75
Value flag · 1/X at 18.4 — our 9% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-8.0pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.2pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.0pp
37%
Under 2.5
38%
-0.0pp
63%
Over 2.5
62%
+0.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.1pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Peterborough United v Northampton Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.88/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.80
+16% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -19%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
456 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 71%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
25.2 Crosses 13.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Peterborough United vs Northampton Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Northampton Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.68 xG 1.08
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 Passes 269
74% Pass Accuracy 69%
27 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
16.04.2021 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-1 HT 1-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
10.10.2020 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
03.09.2019 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-2 HT 0-2 Peterborough United Peterborough United İNTK
02.04.2018 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-0 HT 2-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
03.10.2017 Peterborough United Peterborough United 1-1 HT 1-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İNTK

Peterborough United 5-1 Northampton Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
5-1
AWAY Northampton Town
1.93 xG 0.65
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
580 Passes 268
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
34 Box Touches 7
22 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Peterborough United swept aside Northampton Town 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Peterborough United as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Peterborough United had 65% of the ball to Northampton Town's 35%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.93 to 0.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Peterborough United and 0.50 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Northampton Town?

Peterborough United 5-1 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 58%, draw 22%, Northampton Town 20%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Peterborough United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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