Barnsley 2-2 Bolton Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Mar 2024

Barnsley
2-2 HT 1-0
Bolton Wanderers
📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Barnsley vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.55
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
12.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 28% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.3
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
14%
5.11
X/2
14%
6.04
X/X
9%
4.66
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
13%
4.18
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Barnsley v Bolton Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barnsley EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +12%
1.01/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.10
+8% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
276 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 69%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
21.2 Crosses 14.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Barnsley vs Bolton Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barnsley
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.78 xG 1.25
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
150 Passes 385
58% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.02.2024 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
19.05.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 1-0 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
13.05.2023 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
02.01.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 0-3 HT 0-2 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
05.11.2022 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-2 HT 0-2 Barnsley Barnsley FAK
15.10.2022 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1

Barnsley 2-2 Bolton Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barnsley
2-2
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
1.23 xG 3.69
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
156 Passes 294
53% Pass Accuracy 65%
16 Box Touches 36
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Barnsley vs Bolton Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley and Bolton Wanderers shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Barnsley at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Barnsley had 40% of the ball to Bolton Wanderers's 60%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 1.23 to 3.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barnsley had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Barnsley and 1.00 for Bolton Wanderers.

What was the final score of Barnsley vs Bolton Wanderers?

Barnsley 2-2 Bolton Wanderers in the England - 1st Division on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barnsley vs Bolton Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Barnsley 42%, draw 25%, Bolton Wanderers 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Barnsley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
5 Mar 2024
22:45 Cheltenham Town vs Charlton Athletic Analysis →
22:45 Peterborough United vs Northampton Town Analysis →