Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.35
6+ Goals
11%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 29% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.63
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
19%
4.47
X/2
14%
7.41
X/X
13%
4.85
2/1
6%
23.85
2/2
10%
5.35
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 30%
+7% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +18%
1.34/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.26
+8% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +49%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
306 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 68%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
17.8 Crosses 20.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bolton Wanderers
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Barnsley
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.17 xG 0.83
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
359 Passes 178
75% Pass Accuracy 62%
20 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 1-0 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
13.05.2023 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
02.01.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 0-3 HT 0-2 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
05.11.2022 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-2 HT 0-2 Barnsley Barnsley FAK
15.10.2022 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
10.08.2021 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolton Wanderers
1-1
AWAY Barnsley
0.98 xG 1.05
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 3
435 Passes 149
79% Pass Accuracy 57%
22 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolton Wanderers and Barnsley couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bolton Wanderers at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Bolton Wanderers had 68% of the ball to Barnsley's 32%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 0.98 to 1.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barnsley led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 0.67 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley?

Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bolton Wanderers 43%, draw 27%, Barnsley 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bolton Wanderers), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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