Exeter City 0-1 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.01
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.84
6+ Goals
10%
16.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 30% vs market 27.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.07
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
13%
5.75
X/2
11%
5.19
X/X
11%
4.3
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
20%
3.52
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-0.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 42%
-9% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.02/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.95
-56% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
264 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
21.8 Crosses 13.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.74 xG 1.26
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
202 Passes 248
63% Pass Accuracy 65%
23 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.01.2024 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-1 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
29.12.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3-4 HT 0-2 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
01.10.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 2-2 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
26.02.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-1 HT 1-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
10.11.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 5-3 HT 5-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İNTK
21.08.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 4-1 HT 4-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
0-1
AWAY Bristol Rovers
0.75 xG 0.27
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
364 Passes 211
78% Pass Accuracy 63%
20 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol Rovers squeezed past Exeter City 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Bristol Rovers made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Exeter City had 59% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 41%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 0.75 to 0.27 — the balance of chances actually favoured Exeter City.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Exeter City had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Exeter City and 1.67 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers?

Exeter City 0-1 Bristol Rovers in the England - 1st Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Exeter City win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 37%, draw 26%, Bristol Rovers 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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