Oxford United 1-1 Reading — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 3 Feb 2024

Oxford United
1-1 HT 1-0
Reading
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Oxford United vs Reading Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.02
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.6
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
12%
11.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.85
1/2 EV+ ✗
5%
33.0
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
9%
4.7
X/2
8%
6.83
X/X
8%
4.85
2/1
6%
24.3
2/2
18%
4.79
2/X
7%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.0 — our 5% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.7pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.3pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Oxford United v Reading — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oxford United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Reading EU Bookmakers 32%
-13% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -25%
1.41/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.15
-14% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
372 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 70%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
20.1 Crosses 20.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Oxford United vs Reading Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oxford United
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Reading
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.52 xG 1.31
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
434 Passes 243
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.12.2023 Reading Reading 1-1 HT 1-1 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
17.04.2001 Oxford United Oxford United 0-2 HT 0-1 Reading Reading İN1
28.10.2000 Reading Reading 4-3 HT 1-1 Oxford United Oxford United İN1

Oxford United 1-1 Reading — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oxford United
1-1
AWAY Reading
1.12 xG 0.27
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
196 Passes 309
61% Pass Accuracy 68%
17 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Oxford United vs Reading
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oxford United and Reading couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Oxford United at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Oxford United had 41% of the ball to Reading's 59%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.12 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Reading led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Oxford United and 2.33 for Reading.

What was the final score of Oxford United vs Reading?

Oxford United 1-1 Reading in the England - 1st Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oxford United vs Reading?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oxford United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Oxford United 47%, draw 21%, Reading 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Oxford United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Oxford United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
3 Feb 2024
18:00 Bolton Wanderers vs Barnsley Analysis →
18:00 Stevenage vs Blackpool Analysis →
18:00 Shrewsbury vs Cambridge United Analysis →
18:00 Cheltenham Town vs Wycombe Wanderers Analysis →
18:00 Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers Analysis →
18:00 Fleetwood Town vs Port Vale Analysis →