Bristol Rovers 0-1 Exeter City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 23 Jan 2024

Bristol Rovers
0-1 HT 0-1
Exeter City
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.24
6+ Goals
11%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 27% vs market 22.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
14%
4.03
X/2
7%
8.95
X/X
12%
5.25
2/1
8%
22.6
2/2
9%
6.73
2/X
5%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-0.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
22%
Away Win
22%
+0.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.7pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bristol Rovers v Exeter City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Exeter City EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -18%
1.33/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.62
-4% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 76%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
15.3 Crosses 16.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6

Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol Rovers
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Exeter City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.32 xG 1.89
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
238 Passes 213
64% Pass Accuracy 64%
18 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.12.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3-4 HT 0-2 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
01.10.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 2-2 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
26.02.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-1 HT 1-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
10.11.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 5-3 HT 5-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İNTK
21.08.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 4-1 HT 4-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN2
13.11.2018 Exeter City Exeter City 2-0 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İNTK

Bristol Rovers 0-1 Exeter City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol Rovers
0-1
AWAY Exeter City
0.95 xG 0.99
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 7
296 Passes 152
73% Pass Accuracy 59%
18 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City nicked a narrow win over Bristol Rovers 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Bristol Rovers at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Bristol Rovers had 61% of the ball to Exeter City's 39%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 0.95 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Exeter City led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bristol Rovers and 3.00 for Exeter City.

What was the final score of Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City?

Bristol Rovers 0-1 Exeter City in the England - 1st Division on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bristol Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Bristol Rovers 53%, draw 25%, Exeter City 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bristol Rovers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bristol Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
23 Jan 2024
22:45 Charlton Athletic vs Northampton Town Analysis →
22:45 Oxford United vs Barnsley Analysis →
22:45 Wigan Athletic vs Wycombe Wanderers Analysis →
22:45 Bolton Wanderers vs Cheltenham Town Analysis →
23:00 Reading vs Derby County Analysis →