Charlton Athletic 2-3 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 23 Jan 2024

Charlton Athletic
2-3 HT 2-2
Northampton Town
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Charlton Athletic vs Northampton Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.22
2-3 Goals
35%
1.76
4-5 Goals
26%
3.54
6+ Goals
11%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 28% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.58
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
17%
4.31
X/2
7%
7.65
X/X
10%
4.66
2/1
9%
24.7
2/2
12%
5.76
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Charlton Athletic v Northampton Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlton Athletic EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.66/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.29
+28% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
280 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 69%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
21.2 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Charlton Athletic vs Northampton Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlton Athletic
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Northampton Town
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.31 xG 0.44
55% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
220 Passes 164
68% Pass Accuracy 60%
20 Box Touches 10
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
09.03.2021 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 2-1 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
24.10.2020 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
30.03.2018 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-4 HT 0-2 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
19.08.2017 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 4-1 HT 1-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
04.03.2017 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic İN1
13.08.2016 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 1-1 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1

Charlton Athletic 2-3 Northampton Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlton Athletic
2-3
AWAY Northampton Town
1.09 xG 1.34
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
346 Passes 245
72% Pass Accuracy 65%
33 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Charlton Athletic vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northampton Town edged past Charlton Athletic 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Charlton Athletic at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Charlton Athletic had 56% of the ball to Northampton Town's 44%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.09 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Charlton Athletic had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Charlton Athletic and 0.83 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Charlton Athletic vs Northampton Town?

Charlton Athletic 2-3 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlton Athletic vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charlton Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Charlton Athletic 48%, draw 27%, Northampton Town 26%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Charlton Athletic) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Charlton Athletic) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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