Oxford United 0-1 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 23 Jan 2024

Oxford United
0-1 HT 0-1
Barnsley
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Oxford United vs Barnsley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.82
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.12
6+ Goals
13%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.03
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
12%
5.0
X/2
9%
6.43
X/X
10%
4.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.3
2/2
17%
4.31
2/X
10%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.3 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.2pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Oxford United v Barnsley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oxford United EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +30%
1.43/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.20
-10% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +82%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
308 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 74%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
20.9 Crosses 16.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9

Oxford United vs Barnsley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oxford United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Barnsley
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.63 xG 1.12
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 6
271 Passes 282
69% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 1-3 HT 0-1 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
22.04.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 2-0 HT 1-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
01.02.2023 Oxford United Oxford United 1-2 HT 0-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
29.01.2019 Oxford United Oxford United 2-2 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
04.08.2018 Barnsley Barnsley 4-0 HT 2-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
03.04.2016 Barnsley Barnsley 3-2 HT 0-1 Oxford United Oxford United İNTK

Oxford United 0-1 Barnsley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oxford United
0-1
AWAY Barnsley
1.01 xG 0.42
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 4
374 Passes 195
73% Pass Accuracy 57%
10 Box Touches 16
6 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Oxford United vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley nicked a narrow win over Oxford United 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Oxford United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Oxford United had 59% of the ball to Barnsley's 41%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.01 to 0.42 — the balance of chances actually favoured Oxford United.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barnsley led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Oxford United and 2.33 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Oxford United vs Barnsley?

Oxford United 0-1 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oxford United vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oxford United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Oxford United 41%, draw 26%, Barnsley 33%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Oxford United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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