Reading 1-0 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 23 Jan 2024

Reading
1-0 HT 0-0
Derby County
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Reading vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
45%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.97
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.04
6+ Goals
12%
9.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.81
1/2
8%
21.75
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.25
X/1
13%
8.17
X/2
21%
4.28
X/X
8%
5.4
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
16%
2.38
2/X
8%
13.8
Value flag · 1/X at 14.25 — our 10% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+4.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
45%
Away Win
51%
-6.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Reading v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reading EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 56%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.71/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.98
+39% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +44%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
279 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 78%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
16.3 Crosses 20.8
3.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Reading vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reading
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Derby County
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.25 xG 1.08
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
369 Passes 400
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.01.2022 Reading Reading 2-2 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
29.09.2021 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 1-0 Reading Reading İNCL
05.04.2021 Reading Reading 3-1 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
12.09.2020 Derby County Derby County 0-2 HT 0-2 Reading Reading İNCL
27.06.2020 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 2-0 Reading Reading İNCL
21.12.2019 Reading Reading 3-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Reading 1-0 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reading
1-0
AWAY Derby County
0.64 xG 0.71
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 6
194 Passes 293
63% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Reading vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reading nicked a narrow win over Derby County 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Derby County at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Reading had 42% of the ball to Derby County's 58%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.64 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Reading had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Reading and 1.00 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Reading vs Derby County?

Reading 1-0 Derby County in the England - 1st Division on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reading vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Reading 29%, draw 26%, Derby County 45%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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