Turan Tovuz 3-2 Shamakhi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 9 Dec 2024

📅09/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.47
Draw
30%
3.8
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.33
No
57%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
4%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
64%
-15.1pp
30%
Draw
23%
+7.1pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+8.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
39%
+4.5pp
57%
BTTS No
61%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.44/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.24
-30% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -7%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 202 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Shamakhi
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2024 Shamakhi Shamakhi 2-2 HT 0-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
09.04.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-1 HT 1-1 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
06.02.2023 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
22.11.2022 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERK
04.11.2022 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-3 HT 1-2 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
03.09.2022 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Shamakhi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Turan Tovuz edged past Shamakhi 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Turan Tovuz as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Turan Tovuz had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Turan Tovuz and 1.00 for Shamakhi.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Shamakhi?

Turan Tovuz 3-2 Shamakhi in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 09/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Shamakhi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Turan Tovuz win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 49%, draw 30%, Shamakhi 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Turan Tovuz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Turan Tovuz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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