Esenler Erokspor 0-1 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 9 Dec 2024

📅09/12/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.55
No
55%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
4.34
2-3 Goals
36%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
3.02
6+ Goals
10%
9.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.34 — our 31% vs market 18.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.83
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
5%
13.15
X/1
16%
4.9
X/2
8%
7.02
X/X
10%
5.42
2/1
7%
23.0
2/2
19%
4.66
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.1pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.3pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
60%
-15.5pp
55%
BTTS No
40%
+15.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 33%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -8%
1.67/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.61
+6% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
24.6 Crosses 17.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esenler Erokspor
0-1
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.41 xG 1.93
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 4
402 Passes 324
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Esenler Erokspor vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor nicked a narrow win over Esenler Erokspor 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Esenler Erokspor at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Esenler Erokspor had 55% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 45%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 1.41 to 1.93.

What was the final score of Esenler Erokspor vs Ümraniyespor?

Esenler Erokspor 0-1 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 09/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esenler Erokspor vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esenler Erokspor win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Esenler Erokspor 44%, draw 23%, Ümraniyespor 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Esenler Erokspor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Esenler Erokspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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