Lazio 1-0 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 10 Jan 2024

Lazio
1-0 HT 0-0
Roma
📅10/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.8
Draw
33%
2.88
Away
26%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.45
Over 2.5
40%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.09
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
17%
6.23
6+ Goals
10%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.54
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
18%
5.51
X/2
7%
4.88
X/X
21%
3.37
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
13%
3.84
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
32%
+8.5pp
33%
Draw
31%
+1.8pp
26%
Away Win
36%
-10.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
65%
-4.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
35%
+4.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.8pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 40%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.71/0.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/4.68
+59% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -78%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
389 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
17.0 Crosses 19.9
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Roma
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.79 xG 1.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
450 Passes 352
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.11.2023 Lazio Lazio 0-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
19.03.2023 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
06.11.2022 Roma Roma 0-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
20.03.2022 Roma Roma 3-0 HT 3-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
26.09.2021 Lazio Lazio 3-2 HT 2-1 Roma Roma İTA
15.05.2021 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 1-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
1-0
AWAY Roma
1.67 xG 0.63
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
357 Passes 480
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio squeezed past Roma 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Lazio had 43% of the ball to Roma's 57%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 1.67 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lazio and 1.17 for Roma.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Roma?

Lazio 1-0 Roma in the Italy - Cup on 10/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lazio 41%, draw 33%, Roma 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTK More Italy - Cup
10 Jan 2024
23:00 Milan vs Atalanta Analysis →