Milan 1-2 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 10 Jan 2024

📅10/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 28% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.31
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
13%
5.17
X/2
17%
6.09
X/X
8%
4.52
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
13%
4.17
2/X
10%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.6pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 36%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
2.00/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/0.85
+47% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
14.2 Crosses 22.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Atalanta
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.76 xG 1.26
47% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
353 Passes 392
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 3-2 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
26.02.2023 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
21.08.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-1 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
15.05.2022 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
03.10.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 2-3 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
23.05.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 0-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1-2
AWAY Atalanta
0.56 xG 1.44
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
505 Passes 296
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Milan vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta squeezed past Milan 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Atalanta made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Milan had 62% of the ball to Atalanta's 38%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.56 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Milan and 1.00 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Milan vs Atalanta?

Milan 1-2 Atalanta in the Italy - Cup on 10/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Milan 39%, draw 26%, Atalanta 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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