Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 10 Jan 2025

📅10/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.79
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.7
6+ Goals
13%
7.09
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.21
1/2
11%
21.55
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
14%
8.03
X/2
9%
4.78
X/X
9%
5.74
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
22%
2.52
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
41%
Away Win
49%
-7.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.4pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 52%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.44/2.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.17
-3% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +9%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
275 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 423 · 80%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
14.4 Crosses 15.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.36 xG 1.56
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
377 Passes 406
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.04.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
03.12.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
29.01.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
06.08.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
06.02.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-5 HT 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
11.09.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-4 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
2-3
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.35 xG 1.64
70% Ball Possession 30%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
628 Passes 225
91% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen nicked a narrow win over Borussia Dortmund 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 70% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 30%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.35 to 1.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.67 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 10/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 35%, draw 23%, Bayer Leverkusen 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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