Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Apr 2024

Borussia Dortmund
1-1 HT 0-0
Bayer Leverkusen
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.07
Over 2.5
57%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.97
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.23
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
24.85
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
16%
5.68
X/2
12%
6.17
X/X
10%
5.75
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
16%
3.62
2/X
8%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.85 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.1pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +20%
1.56/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.51
+31% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +30%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 82%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
17.4 Crosses 15.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.47 xG 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
392 Passes 406
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
29.01.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
06.08.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
06.02.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-5 HT 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
11.09.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-4 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
22.05.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
1-1
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.49 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
417 Passes 459
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 33
6 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 48% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 52%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.49 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.67 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 39%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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