Werder Bremen 2-1 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Apr 2024

Werder Bremen
2-1 HT 1-0
Stuttgart
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
44%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
22%
2.84
6+ Goals
13%
7.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.72 — our 26% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.35
1/2
6%
20.55
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
14%
9.22
X/2
16%
4.22
X/X
13%
6.03
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.17
2/X
6%
14.3
Value flag · X/1 at 9.22 — our 14% vs market 7.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
23%
+9.1pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.6pp
43%
Away Win
54%
-10.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.2pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Werder Bremen v Stuttgart — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 58%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -36%
1.29/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.28/1.17
-8% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -31%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
264 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 464 · 83%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.0
18.9 Crosses 19.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Stuttgart
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.69 xG 1.69
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
409 Passes 395
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-0 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
05.02.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-2 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
13.08.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-2 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
04.04.2021 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
06.12.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
22.02.2019 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-1 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1

Werder Bremen 2-1 Stuttgart — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
2-1
AWAY Stuttgart
1.54 xG 2.22
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
247 Passes 652
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 39
14 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen squeezed past Stuttgart 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Stuttgart at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 31% of the ball to Stuttgart's 69%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 1.54 to 2.22 — the balance of chances actually favoured Stuttgart.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stuttgart led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.33 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart?

Werder Bremen 2-1 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 32%, draw 24%, Stuttgart 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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