Freiburg 1-1 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Apr 2024

Freiburg
1-1 HT 1-1
Mainz 05
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Freiburg vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.95
Over 2.5
57%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.53
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.39
6+ Goals
12%
12.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.39 — our 26% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.12
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
20%
6.05
X/2
12%
5.14
X/X
12%
4.79
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
15%
3.28
2/X
6%
13.05
Value flag · X/1 at 6.05 — our 20% vs market 12.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
34%
+7.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.6pp
33%
Away Win
40%
-6.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.7pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 43%
+4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -9%
1.48/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.26
+0% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
270 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 75%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
19.5 Crosses 19.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Freiburg vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Mainz 05
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.29 xG 1.69
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
324 Passes 291
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
19.03.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
01.10.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
12.02.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
18.09.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
13.03.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1

Freiburg 1-1 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
1-1
AWAY Mainz 05
1.12 xG 1.06
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
254 Passes 443
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg and Mainz 05 couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Freiburg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Freiburg had 40% of the ball to Mainz 05's 60%, shots finished 6-16, expected goals 1.12 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Freiburg and 0.67 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Mainz 05?

Freiburg 1-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 42%, draw 25%, Mainz 05 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Freiburg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Freiburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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