Al Ahli Jeddah 3-2 Al Shabab Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 10 Jan 2025

📅10/01/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.11
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
8.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-8.0pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.7pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.0pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.87/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.63
-16% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
401 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
23.7 Crosses 11.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.55 xG 1.27
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
351 Passes 339
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 1-2 HT 1-1 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
25.11.2023 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
27.06.2022 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
21.02.2022 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 2-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SAKK
01.01.2022 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 3-4 HT 2-2 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
22.02.2021 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 3-0 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
3-2
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
4.55 xG 0.86
46% Ball Possession 54%
25 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
299 Passes 359
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
47 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli Jeddah squeezed past Al Shabab Riyadh 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Ahli Jeddah as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Al Ahli Jeddah had 46% of the ball to Al Shabab Riyadh's 54%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 4.55 to 0.86 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Ahli Jeddah's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Shabab Riyadh led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Ahli Jeddah and 1.67 for Al Shabab Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Al Ahli Jeddah 3-2 Al Shabab Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 10/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli Jeddah 49%, draw 27%, Al Shabab Riyadh 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
SUUD More Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League
10 Jan 2025
17:40 Al Ettifaq vs Al Kholood Analysis →
18:05 Al Raed vs Damac FC Analysis →