Karvina 0-3 Sparta Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.91
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
56%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.43
Over 2.5
45%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.73
No
57%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
5.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
21%
2.7
6+ Goals
11%
6.97
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.05 — our 30% vs market 14.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
14%
+5.7pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.2pp
56%
Away Win
67%
-10.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
38%
+17.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
62%
-17.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
54%
-11.1pp
57%
BTTS No
46%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karvina EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 71%
-8% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.14/2.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.23/0.86
+24% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -5%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
314 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.0
27.0 Crosses 34.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karvina
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.08.2023 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 3-1 HT 2-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
04.12.2021 Karvina Karvina 1-2 HT 0-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
07.08.2021 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 2-0 HT 1-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
14.02.2021 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 4-3 HT 3-2 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
13.09.2020 Karvina Karvina 2-5 HT 2-2 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
31.05.2020 Karvina Karvina 1-4 HT 1-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karvina
0-3
AWAY Sparta Prag
0.65 xG 1.87
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 14
0 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
177 Passes 446
65% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Karvina vs Sparta Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Prag cruised past Karvina 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sparta Prag as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Karvina had 34% of the ball to Sparta Prag's 66%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.65 to 1.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Prag led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Karvina and 3.33 for Sparta Prag.

What was the final score of Karvina vs Sparta Prag?

Karvina 0-3 Sparta Prag in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karvina vs Sparta Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sparta Prag win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Karvina 20%, draw 24%, Sparta Prag 56%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sparta Prag), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sparta Prag) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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