Lugano 3-3 Young Boys — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.11
6+ Goals
9%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 26% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.82
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
17%
5.9
X/2
9%
5.32
X/X
11%
4.97
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
19%
3.31
2/X
8%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.4pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Young Boys EU Bookmakers 43%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.19/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.30
-20% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
15.2 Crosses 23.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Young Boys
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.23 xG 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
300 Passes 344
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.10.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
24.09.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 4-1 HT 3-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
04.06.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 3-2 HT 2-0 Lugano Lugano İSVK
25.05.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
18.02.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 1-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
19.10.2022 Lugano Lugano 1-4 HT 1-1 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
3-3
AWAY Young Boys
1.75 xG 1.69
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
316 Passes 333
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Young Boys
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano and Young Boys couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lugano had 48% of the ball to Young Boys's 52%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.75 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Young Boys led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lugano and 2.17 for Young Boys.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Young Boys?

Lugano 3-3 Young Boys in the Switzerland - Super League on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Young Boys?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lugano 38%, draw 27%, Young Boys 35%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Under 2.5
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