10/02/2024
·
22:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-1
Sertaozinho vs Matonense Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
Over
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No Pick
53%
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
44%
4-5
21%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
45%
Home Win
46%
18%
Draw
26%
37%
Away Win
28%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sertaozinho v Matonense — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Sertaozinho
The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY
Matonense
The Market 32%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
54%
Ball Possession
46%
16
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
5
350 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
280 · 73%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Sertaozinho vs Matonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Sertaozinho saw off Matonense 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sertaozinho as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
What was the final score of Sertaozinho vs Matonense?
Sertaozinho 2-0 Matonense in the Brazil - Paulista A3 on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sertaozinho vs Matonense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sertaozinho win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sertaozinho 45%, draw 18%, Matonense 37%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sertaozinho), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Sertaozinho)
✓ BTTS No
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10 Feb 2024