PSG 3-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 10 Feb 2024

PSG
3-1 HT 2-1
Lille
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

PSG vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.25
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 27% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.38
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
14%
4.07
X/2
9%
8.18
X/X
15%
4.82
2/1
9%
23.75
2/2
11%
6.3
2/X
6%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.5pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 27%
+9% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.94/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.16
+88% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
14.6 Crosses 13.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8

PSG vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Lille
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.35 xG 1.47
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
513 Passes 358
90% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
19.02.2023 PSG PSG 4-3 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FR1
21.08.2022 Lille Lille 1-7 HT 0-4 PSG PSG FR1
06.02.2022 Lille Lille 1-5 HT 1-3 PSG PSG FR1
29.10.2021 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
01.08.2021 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 1-0 PSG PSG FRSK

PSG 3-1 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
3-1
AWAY Lille
2.83 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
407 Passes 367
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PSG vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG got the better of Lille 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, PSG had 52% of the ball to Lille's 48%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.83 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for PSG and 1.33 for Lille.

What was the final score of PSG vs Lille?

PSG 3-1 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split PSG 47%, draw 27%, Lille 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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