Lech Poznan 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 25% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.28
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
15%
4.01
X/2
13%
8.81
X/X
9%
4.85
2/1
8%
23.75
2/2
13%
6.81
2/X
6%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.4pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.4pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 25%
-8% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
1.62/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.71
-13% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
396 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 75%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
22.8 Crosses 14.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.05 xG 1.24
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
427 Passes 253
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
28 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.08.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
19.02.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-2 HT 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
07.08.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
21.05.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-1 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
05.12.2021 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-3 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
05.02.2021 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-0 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
2-0
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
0.99 xG 0.90
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
391 Passes 318
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan got the better of Zaglebie Lubin 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 54% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 46%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.99 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.17 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Lech Poznan 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 48%, draw 22%, Zaglebie Lubin 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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