10/03/2024
·
18:15
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-2
Lecco vs Palermo Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.6
— our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Away Win
Under 2.5
BTTS Yes
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
29%
Draw
26%
38%
Away Win
45%
51%
Under 2.5
46%
49%
Over 2.5
54%
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
41%
BTTS No
43%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lecco v Palermo — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Lecco
EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY
Palermo
EU Bookmakers 49%
-36% /
-36%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+13% /
+16%
1.39/1.32
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.34/1.22
-33%
/
-46%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-4%
/
+21%
45%
Ball Possession
55%
12
Total Shots
14
5
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
5
290 · 74%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
380 · 80%
24.3
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.6
27.5
Crosses
23.0
3.1
Yellow Cards
2.1
Lecco vs Palermo Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Lecco
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Palermo
2.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
1.43
xG
2.62
36%
Ball Possession
64%
12
Total Shots
25
7
Shots on Target
9
5
Corners
6
233
Passes
472
72%
Pass Accuracy
85%
21
Box Touches
44
11
Crosses
38
2
Yellow Cards
2
The Meetings
29.10.2023
Palermo
1-2
HT 0-2
Lecco
İTB
1-2
HT 0-2
Lecco
İTB
Lecco 0-1 Palermo — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Lecco
0-1
AWAY
Palermo
1.02
xG
0.88
55%
Ball Possession
45%
17
Total Shots
8
3
Shots on Target
4
7
Corners
3
349
Passes
272
80%
Pass Accuracy
74%
25
Box Touches
14
38
Crosses
16
1
Yellow Cards
0
POST-MATCH
Lecco vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Palermo squeezed past Lecco 1-0 away from home.
We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 29% / 38% — and on the day Palermo made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lecco had 55% of the ball to Palermo's 45%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.02 to 0.88.
What was the final score of Lecco vs Palermo?
Lecco 0-1 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lecco vs Palermo?
Before kick-off our model rated an Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lecco 33%, draw 29%, Palermo 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palermo), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Palermo)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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İTB
More Italy - Serie B
10 Mar 2024