Venezia 3-1 FC Bari 1908 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 10 Mar 2024

Venezia
3-1 HT 2-1
FC Bari 1908
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Venezia vs FC Bari 1908 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.42
6+ Goals
8%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 33% vs market 31.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.24
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
4%
15.7
X/1
26%
3.76
X/2
4%
9.69
X/X
11%
4.34
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
16%
8.39
2/X
8%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.3pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.8pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Venezia v FC Bari 1908 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venezia EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Bari 1908 EU Bookmakers 22%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -1%
1.90/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.38
+27% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 73%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
24.2 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Venezia vs FC Bari 1908 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venezia
4W-0D-2L
AWAY FC Bari 1908
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.07 xG 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
468 Passes 333
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-3 HT 0-1 Venezia Venezia İTB
01.03.2023 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTB
08.10.2022 Venezia Venezia 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
03.02.2018 Venezia Venezia 3-1 HT 3-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
09.09.2017 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-2 HT 0-1 Venezia Venezia İTB
07.05.2005 Venezia Venezia 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB

Venezia 3-1 FC Bari 1908 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Venezia
3-1
AWAY FC Bari 1908
2.21 xG 1.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
372 Passes 323
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Venezia vs FC Bari 1908
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venezia saw off FC Bari 1908 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Venezia as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Venezia had 52% of the ball to FC Bari 1908's 48%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 2.21 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venezia had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Venezia and 0.67 for FC Bari 1908.

What was the final score of Venezia vs FC Bari 1908?

Venezia 3-1 FC Bari 1908 in the Italy - Serie B on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venezia vs FC Bari 1908?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venezia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Venezia 50%, draw 23%, FC Bari 1908 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Venezia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Venezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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