Unterhaching 1-0 MSV Duisburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
27%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.37
6+ Goals
12%
12.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 26% vs market 22.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.17
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
19%
5.03
X/2
9%
6.22
X/X
11%
4.81
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
12%
4.27
2/X
8%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
42%
+6.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
27%
Away Win
32%
-5.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Unterhaching EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.42/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.47
+15% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
283 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 75%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
13.7 Crosses 15.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Unterhaching
0W-1D-5L
AWAY MSV Duisburg
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
07.10.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL3
20.02.2021 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-1 HT 1-1 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL3
21.10.2020 Unterhaching Unterhaching 0-1 HT 0-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
04.07.2020 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 4-0 HT 1-0 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL3
15.12.2019 Unterhaching Unterhaching 2-2 HT 2-2 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
14.03.2015 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Unterhaching Unterhaching AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Unterhaching
1-0
AWAY MSV Duisburg
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Unterhaching vs MSV Duisburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Unterhaching edged past MSV Duisburg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Unterhaching as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Unterhaching had 56% of the ball to MSV Duisburg's 44%, shots finished 12-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MSV Duisburg led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Unterhaching and 1.83 for MSV Duisburg.

What was the final score of Unterhaching vs MSV Duisburg?

Unterhaching 1-0 MSV Duisburg in the Germany - 3rd Division on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Unterhaching vs MSV Duisburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Unterhaching win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Unterhaching 48%, draw 25%, MSV Duisburg 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Unterhaching) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Unterhaching) ✗ BTTS Yes
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