Adelaide United (K) 1-4 Melbourne Victory (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 10 Mar 2024

Adelaide United (K)
1-4 HT 0-2
Melbourne Victory (K)
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2023/2024

Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.13
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
50%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.38
Over 2.5
60%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
32%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
21%
+9.6pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.7pp
50%
Away Win
58%
-7.9pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.5pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United (K) v Melbourne Victory (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United (K) EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 62%
+60% / +60% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.22/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.34/1.66
+150% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +74% / -57%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 77%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
16.0 Crosses 25.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United (K)
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.03 xG 1.31
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
199 Passes 381
62% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-0 HT 2-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW
21.12.2018 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) 3-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
28.10.2018 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Adelaide United (K) Adelaide United (K) AVUSTW

Adelaide United (K) 1-4 Melbourne Victory (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United (K)
1-4
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K)
0.98 xG 1.72
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
356 Passes 267
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) cruised past Adelaide United (K) 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne Victory (K) as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Adelaide United (K) had 55% of the ball to Melbourne Victory (K)'s 45%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 0.98 to 1.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Adelaide United (K) and 1.33 for Melbourne Victory (K).

What was the final score of Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?

Adelaide United (K) 1-4 Melbourne Victory (K) in the Australia - W-League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United (K) 30%, draw 20%, Melbourne Victory (K) 50%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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AVUSTW More Australia - W-League
10 Mar 2024
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