Karabağ 3-1 Zira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.8
Over 2.5
38%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
60%
-6.6pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.0pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
52%
+10.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
48%
-10.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.6pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Zira EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -10%
2.51/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.29
+26% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +26%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
388 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Zira
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
70% Ball Possession 30%
14 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.12.2023 Zira Zira 0-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
05.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 0-1 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERS
21.04.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 2-2 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERS
19.02.2023 Zira Zira 0-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
28.11.2022 Karabağ Karabağ 0-0 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERS
18.09.2022 Zira Zira 1-7 HT 1-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Zira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ saw off Zira 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Karabağ and 0.67 for Zira.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Zira?

Karabağ 3-1 Zira in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Zira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 53%, draw 28%, Zira 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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