Boussu Dour Borinage 1-2 Lommel United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 10 Mar 2024

Boussu Dour Borinage
1-2 HT 0-1
Lommel United
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Belgium - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lommel United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
47%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.98
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 27% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
47%
Away Win
48%
-0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.6pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Boussu Dour Borinage v Lommel United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lommel United EU Bookmakers 51%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.31/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.11
+28% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
23.3 Crosses 15.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lommel United Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lommel United
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.34 xG 1.50
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
275 Passes 653
80% Pass Accuracy 90%
13 Box Touches 21
5 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Lommel United Lommel United 3-0 HT 1-0 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage BEL2

Boussu Dour Borinage 1-2 Lommel United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage
1-2
AWAY Lommel United
0.76 xG 0.84
28% Ball Possession 72%
8 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
179 Passes 618
73% Pass Accuracy 90%
19 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lommel United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lommel United squeezed past Boussu Dour Borinage 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lommel United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Boussu Dour Borinage had 28% of the ball to Lommel United's 72%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.76 to 0.84.

What was the final score of Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lommel United?

Boussu Dour Borinage 1-2 Lommel United in the Belgium - 1st Division on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lommel United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lommel United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Boussu Dour Borinage 26%, draw 27%, Lommel United 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lommel United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lommel United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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