Dinamo Zagreb 5-2 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.25
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
15%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.29
Over 2.5
43%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.16
No
64%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.59
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
18%
2.88
6+ Goals
10%
8.24
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.59 — our 30% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
76%
-11.9pp
21%
Draw
16%
+5.5pp
15%
Away Win
8%
+6.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
40%
+17.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
60%
-17.1pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.3pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 11%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
1.77/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.51
+7% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -9%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
469 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 74%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
22.5 Crosses 12.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.70 xG 0.59
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
517 Passes 230
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.12.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
16.09.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
15.04.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4-0 HT 3-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.02.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
01.10.2022 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4-1 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
23.07.2022 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-5 HT 1-3 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
5-2
AWAY Slaven Belupo
2.28 xG 0.45
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
448 Passes 283
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
31 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb ran out comfortable winners over Slaven Belupo 5-2. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 59% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 41%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.28 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.50 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo?

Dinamo Zagreb 5-2 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 64%, draw 21%, Slaven Belupo 15%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
10 Mar 2024
17:00 Rijeka vs Osijek Analysis →